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Re: [ide-dev] Eclipse IDE popularity: Snyk report vs download stats
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I just found this in their report:
"Using the IntelliJ IDEA Snyk plugin, you can ..."
Do you see any reason why Snyk should try hard to get a sample *without* a bias
towards IntelliJ?
OK, they seem to have an Eclipse plug-in, too, but they don't even advertise it
on https://snyk.io/product/ - only VSCode and IntelliJ.
Of course not everybody will notice this and draw corresponding conclusions.
<shrug>
Stephan
On 06.02.20 09:03, Mickael Istria wrote:
Hi all,
If you look at trends (from whichever sources), you'll see that Snyk has
published its yearly "JVM trends" report recently. In this report, which is
based on a ~2000 self-engaged benevolent voters, the Eclipse IDE is credited of
20% marketshare in the IDE landscape, with a decrease of almost 50% over last year.
However, we have recently discussed on this mailing-list that Eclipse IDE has
received a sustainable increase of downloads according to the download stats
provided by Eclipse Foundation:
https://www.eclipse.org/lists/ide-dev/msg01926.html , with each release
receiving ~4.5 million downloads, which we estimate -a bit incorrectly but
hopefully not too much- as being equivalent to the number of end-users.
So let's try to combine those together.
Facts are: Eclipse IDE download stats have shown no loss of downloads over last
year, on the contrary; while Snyk reports 20%-absolute / 47%-relative loss of
marketshare over last year.
Possible conclusions:
1. Both are reliable, and there have been 4.5 million new Java developers
between last year and this year, and all chose to not use Eclipse IDE.
2. The Eclipse download stats are not reliable and fail at showing an actual
decrease
3. The Snyk report is not reliable.
Because I trust the Eclipse Foundation, and because I do not believe the net
gain of Java developer in the world can reach so high number, and because trends
based on non-representative panels are never to be trusted; I obviously come to
the conclusion that this Snyk report is totally erroneous, and to be more
explicit, bullshit, if taken as a real market indicator.
The issue is that this report is now here and it comforts some positions and
will be used by competitors (fair) to boost their momentum; and even worse, some
not so rigorous architects or project managers in some companies may use this
indicator as a justification to reduce investment in Eclipse IDE, as users or
contributors.
So this -and some similar other- report is harmful, because it contains some
bullshit trends, which some influential people will not challenge and will take
too seriously and use as a justification actions against the Eclipse IDE. Such
influential people can typically be your boss ;)
With this message, that you can share via the link from the epp-dev mailing-list
archive, I hope it gives you, dear Eclipse IDE interested parties, some
counter-arguments to challenge colleagues and bosses that will instrument this
report to drive to bad conclusions.
Cheers,
--
Mickael Istria
Eclipse IDE <https://www.eclipse.org/downloads/eclipse-packages/> developer, for
Red Hat Developers <https://developers.redhat.com/>
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